The Conservative party is projected to pick up ten more seats than it was last week, drawing within four of the leading NDP.
And while they still have a sizable 15-seat lead over the third-place Liberals, Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University said an election night victory is still up for grabs by any party.
But one thing is likely to happen: a minority government.
“I wouldn’t put a lot of money on anybody coming first, second, or third,” he said.
“The only thing I would put money on is nobody has a snowball’s chance of getting a majority. Now the leading party is 50 seats away from it, we had them more like 40 seats away from it a couple of weeks ago.”
The latest outlook from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) projects the NDP could pick up 120 seats, the Conservatives 116, and the Liberals 101. The projections are based on aggregated and weighted samples of polls from Ipsos, Nanos, Abacus, Ekos, Forum, and Innovative Research with a sample size of over 8,000 respondents.
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Most of the Conservatives’ gains came in Ontario. Last week they were projected to pick up 42 seats, now Kay projects they could win 53.
“The Conservatives coming back to 53 seats which is where they were two weeks ago, is largely a result of the losses from the NDP and Liberals in Ontario,” Kay said in an interview Tuesday morning.
Ontario and British Columbia remain the most competitive areas in the country. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta and the Prairies, while the NDP and Liberals have their strongholds in Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, respectively.
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Note: “Leaning” indicates a 5% to 10% lead. “Too Close to Call” indicates a difference under 5%. Courtesy of Lispop桑拿按摩.
And while the numbers suggest the NDP has a slight lead, any of the three main parties could still win, Kay said.
“It’s not just a two-way horserace. It’s a three-way horserace,” Kay said. “But there’s no question that even though the Liberals have been in third place for the last three months… they could still win because there’s not that many seats needed to overtake.”
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When it comes to an aggregated popular opinion, Kay said the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 34 per cent support. The NDP trails with 26. In order to win, Kay said, the Liberals would have to target rural ridings where they are competitive.
“Some momentum in smaller town Ontario would pick up a whole bunch of seats,” he said. “So the Liberals are very much within shooting distance.”